US Advertising Expenditure Trends: Long-run Effects and Structural Changes with New Media Introducti

In this paper we examine the historical time series of US advertising expenditure on different media, using a long-run equilibrium model, and whether the introduction of new media (TV, Yellow Pages, cable and the internet) created a significant structural change in the advertising industry. We use a multivariate vector error correction model allowing for broken trends. Our results show that internet and cable media cause a substantive shift only on the evolution of newspapers and outdoor, respectively, whereas TV and yellow pages entries create fundamental change in the spending levels of all incumbents, except for direct mail. We also find that the longrun elasticity between total advertising expenditures and the GDP is negative, implying that total advertising has counter-cyclical behavior. Furthermore, in the long-run, an increase in the internet investment results in a decrease in newspapers as well as magazines’ investment.

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